The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast that the southwest monsoon will arrive in Kerala by May 30, 2024 — four days ahead of the normal onset date of June 1. The department has also predicted above-normal rainfall across most parts of the country this season, bringing significant relief from the intense heatwave gripping northern India.

IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra announced the forecast at a press conference in New Delhi, saying that La Niña conditions are expected to develop by July-August, which typically enhances monsoon rainfall over India.

Season Rainfall Forecast

• All-India rainfall: 106% of Long Period Average (LPA) — classified as “above normal”
• Monsoon onset over Kerala: May 30 (±4 days uncertainty)
• Northwest India: 102-108% of LPA expected
• Central India: 104-110% of LPA — best conditions in 5 years
• Peninsular India: 100-106% of LPA

Impact on Agriculture

The above-normal monsoon forecast is expected to boost kharif crop production significantly. Agricultural economists project rice output could touch a record 120 million tonnes if rainfall distribution remains even. Reservoir levels across major river basins are currently at 35% capacity — well below normal — and a good monsoon is critical to replenish them before the rabi season.

“This is the best monsoon forecast we have issued in five years. The combination of La Niña and positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions bodes very well for India’s agricultural sector.”

Dr. M. Mohapatra, Director General, IMD

Heatwave Relief Expected

The early monsoon arrival should also provide relief to millions of people suffering from extreme heat conditions. Delhi recorded its hottest May in 15 years last week, with temperatures touching 45.6°C. Rajasthan’s Barmer district hit 48°C — just two degrees short of India’s all-time record.

State governments in Maharashtra, Gujarat, and Madhya Pradesh have already begun preparations for the monsoon, including desilting of water bodies, repair of drainage systems, and activation of flood control rooms in low-lying districts.

Precautions During Monsoon

• Avoid waterlogged roads and low-lying areas during heavy rainfall
• Keep emergency kits ready with essentials for 72 hours
• Follow official flood advisories from state disaster management authorities
• Farmers should ensure proper drainage in fields to prevent waterlogging